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Secrets of the Spanish Banking System That 99% of Analysts Fail to Grasp

Spain is a catastrophe on such a level that few analysts even grasp it.
Indeed, to fully understand just why Spain is such a catastrophe, we need to understand Spain in the context of both the EU and the global financial system.

The headline economic data points for Spain are the following:

Spain’s economy (roughly €1 trillion) is the fourth largest in Europe and the 12^th largest in the world.
Spain sports an official Debt to GDP of 68% and a Federal Deficit between 5.3-5.8% (as we’ll soon find out the official number)
Spain’s unemployment is currently 24%: the highest in the industrialized world.
Unemployment for Spanish youth is 50%+: on par with that of Greece

On the surface, Spain’s debt load and deficits aren’t too bad. So we have to ask ourselves, “Why is unemployment so high and why are Spanish ten year bills approaching the dreaded 7%?” (the level at which Greece and Portugal began requesting bailouts).
The answer to these questions lies within the dirty details of Spain’s economic “boom” of the 2000s as well as its banking system.
For starters, the Spanish economic boom was a housing bubble fueled by Spain lowering its interest rates in order to enter the EU, not organic economic growth.
Moreover, Spain’s wasn’t just any old housing bubble; it was a mountain of a property bubble (blue line below) that made the US’s (gray line below) look like a small hill in comparison.

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Posted by Mr Thx Tuesday, May 1, 2012 0 comments

MYR: Near-Term Weakness, Long-Term Strength

Malaysia - Exchange Rate Policy - Nov 10 2011

MALAYSIA CURRENCY FORECAST
	Spot	Ave-11	Ave-12
MYR/US$	3.1200	3.1100	3.1800
MYR/EUR	4.2714	4.4500	4.3800
Overnight Policy Rate (%)	3.00	3.00	3.00
Source: BMI, November 10 2011

Short-Term Outlook

We see increasing risks that the Malaysian ringgit could experience further selling pressures over the coming weeks due to resurfacing troubles in the eurozone. Following a sell-off across regional currencies in September, the Malaysian ringgit depreciated by around 7.5% before finding support at MYR3.2048/US$. Further negative developments in the eurozone could see the ringgit retesting its recent low of MYR3.2048. A break below this level would present significant downside risks to our year-end target of MYR3.1500/US$ for the currency.

External Headwinds Remain

Malaysia - Malaysian Ringgit Spot, MYR/US$

Source: Bloomberg, BMI

Core View

Global economic headwinds, including the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone and growing concerns of a hard-landing in China, should spell further weakness for risk-on currencies including the Malaysian ringgit over the coming months. However, despite these downside risks to the Malaysian ringgit's outlook in the short term, we expect the country's robust current account dynamics to provide support for a steady appreciation in the currency over the medium term. Furthermore, a positive economic outlook should underpin strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and fuel demand for the ringgit over the coming quarters. Nonetheless, we expect further weakness in the currency in H112 before the ringgit resumes its bullish uptrend in H212. This means that the ringgit should average at around MYR3.1800/US$ in 2012 before strengthening to MYR2.8500/US$ by end-2013.

Despite cooling external demand, Malaysian exports have remained resilient in recent months. Trade exports grew 10.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in August (up from 6.9% y-o-y in July) while outpacing that of imports at 6.8%, resulting in a healthy trade surplus of US$3.7bn. Although we expect the trade balance to narrow over the coming months, a surplus would nonetheless be positive for the ringgit. Meanwhile, FDI inflows are likely to remain strong in 2011 due to a positive response from foreign investors towards the government's ambitious Economic Transformation Plan (ETP). In fact, we have already seen compelling evidence that investor optimism over the ETP has been a key factor behind the surge in capital inflows into Malaysia in 2011. According to a survey conducted by the International Trade and Industry Ministry, local and foreign private sector companies are expected to commit MYR50.6bn (US$16.8) worth of investments in 2011. We are optimistic that these FDI inflows should provide further support for the currency over the coming quarters.

Strong Cushion Of Reserves

Malaysia - Foreign Reserves, US$mn

Source: Bloomberg, BMI

According to figures published by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), the recent wave of selling pressure in the foreign exchange market drained the country's foreign reserves by 4.1% from US$134.5bn in August to US$129.1bn by the end of September. However, it is worth noting that the central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market is largely aimed at limiting short-term volatility in the exchange rate, rather than an attempt to defend against a balance of payments deficit. As the accompanying chart shows, despite the central bank's intervention, the country's foreign reserves remain above its pre-crisis peak. Our view that Malaysia's trade balance will remain in surplus while FDI inflows will continue to grow over the coming quarters means that we should see a continued accumulation of reserves.

We note that movements in the Malaysian ringgit and the Chinese yuan are highly correlated as a result of BNM's conscious efforts to keep Malaysian exports competitive. Given that we expect external demand to remain relatively subdued in 2012, export growth should continue to slow over the coming months. This poses a risk that the BNM may seek to limit any significant gains for the ringgit in order to prop up exports.

Catching Up With The Yuan ?

Asia - Spot MYR/US$ (LHS) & 12-Month CNY/USD NDF outright (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg, BMI

Risk To Outlook

FDI inflows will play a major role in sustaining a steady appreciation in the Malaysian ringgit over the coming quarters. To a great extent, this is heavily dependent on the successful implementation of the government's ETP. We warn that Malaysia's deteriorating fiscal position, which we expect to amount to a deficit of 5.6% of GDP in 2012, represents a significant risk to the government's ability to implement the ETP. Should investor sentiment start to wane on the back of growing concerns that the government could face difficulties in financing the ETP, a slowdown in FDI inflows would mean that the currency could see limited gains in H212.

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Posted by Mr Thx Wednesday, April 11, 2012 0 comments

Kyat Could See Further Strength

Myanmar - Economic Activity - Dec 06 2011

BMI View: On the heels of recent surprisingly fast-paced reforms, potential opportunities for Myanmar's economy are perhaps the highest they have been in over five decades. Moving forward, the economy could be set for a boom period in real estate, tourism, construction, and exports, but much will depend on the government's continued push towards reform and the eventual lifting of stifling US and EU sanctions. We see the Myanmar economy growing by 5.0% in 2012 following a 6.0% performance in 2011 even as growth in the rest of the world falls more sharply given the country's unique prospects of economic liberalisation.

One of Asia's best educated and wealthiest states prior to a military coup in 1962, Myanmar is now bereft with a cumbersome dual-rate exchange system, a major infrastructure deficit, and heavy sanctions from the US and EU following almost five decades of failed economic policy. However, on the heels of an election that was widely derided as a rigged handover of power from the military to its own factions in 2010, change may finally be coming in earnest to the beleaguered resource-rich state.

The culmination of recent (and surprisingly strong) reform efforts was US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's November 30 visit to Myanmar, during which she met with President Thein Sein and political activist Aung San Suu Kyi. The visit represented the first time such a high level official from the US had visited Myanmar since 1955 and heralded a major thaw in relations between the two countries. Following such an extended period in isolation, the recent pace of change has been relatively breakneck and could open up myriad opportunities for Myanmar's struggling economy.

Dependence On China To Wane

Myanmar's sudden shift towards political reform is highly indicative of its intentions to stem its growing reliance on giant neighbour China. Over the past 18 months, Myanmar has received 20% more foreign direct investment inflows than it had over the preceding 20 years combined, with China responsible for 70%. President Thein Sein's September decision to halt the China-backed US$3.6bn Myitsone dam project signalled that the new government is serious about balancing the playing field with China, and to do so, Naypyidaw has now turned towards the West.

Shooting Higher

Myanmar - Stock Of Foreign Direct Investment, US$mn

Source: BMI, UNCTAD, Myanmar CSO

This is not to say that Myanmar's relationship with China is likely to deteriorate precipitously. Given China's thirst for Myanmar's natural gas and copper resources, and Myanmar's continued need for Chinese investment, the two countries' mutual interests promise to keep relations close. Moving forward, China is very likely to remain Myanmar's closest ally and largest investor as was indicated by head of Myanmar's armed forces General Min Aung Hlaing's auspicious visit with putative future Chinese president Xi Jinping just days before Clinton's arrival.

Lifting Of Sanctions Could Usher In New Era

Still, détente with the US in particular could present monumental economic opportunities for Myanmar. Since 1997, the US has forbidden all new investment by American companies into Myanmar as well as most Myanmar exports to the US. While the US has repeatedly stated that Myanmar's government will have to show considerably more progress on the political reform front before it can consider reducing or lifting sanctions, Clinton's visit is a major step forward, indicating that the US is likely to reward Myanmar further if the reform process moves ahead.

The lifting of sanctions by the US and EU would solidify Myanmar's re-emergence into the international economy and could eventually set the stage for the country to build its own economic miracle. Rich in natural gas, timber, gems, metals, and myriad other valuable natural resources, Myanmar could potentially become a resource exporting powerhouse. Furthermore, with a literacy rate near 85% and at least 5mn English speakers nationally (most of whom live in Yangon) out of a total population near 60mn, Myanmar possesses considerable human capital.

Secondary Axis Required

Asia - Annual Exports Of Goods, US$bn (Myanmar RHS)

Source: BMI

Still, it should be noted that corruption remains extremely widespread across Myanmar and will continue to plague its poor business environment for an extended period despite even swift wide-ranging reform. Myanmar's current state is underscored by Transparency International's most recent Corruption Perceptions Index rankings, which place the country second worst in the world, tied with Afghanistan and above only Somalia.

Real Estate, Tourism Set To Boom?

In the short term, Myanmar's real estate and tourism sectors stand to gain immensely from an opening of the economy. In stark contrast to just one year ago, when struggling local hoteliers were converting chronically vacant rooms to office space, room shortages are already cropping up in the country's largest and most economically active city, Yangon, as businessmen and tourists alike are drawn towards the country's rapidly changing atmosphere.

In the real estate sector, even though prices have risen for every year for the past 20 years (according to media and anecdotal reports), the hopes that reform will lead to reduced limitations on foreign ownership should keep already lofty prices underpinned through 2012.

With cash being far too risky for most wealthy Burmese to hold and foreign banking not an option for almost anyone holding a substantial amount of wealth, rich Burmese have plunged their capital into real estate, sending the market surging over the past few years. Prices have been reported as high as US$1,245 per square foot in the most sought after locations in Yangon, with properties in some upscale neighbourhoods hovering around US$375 to US$625.

Still, if and when serious economic reforms take place, foreign demand could lead to massive speculation in the market, driving prices even further skywards over the medium term in what remains an exceedingly underdeveloped market. Furthermore, whereas booming property prices have thus far been restricted to a very limited section of Yangon, they could begin to spread rapidly should economic reforms move ahead as hoped. In such a scenario, a lack of office space in Yangon (where there is only 540,000 square feet of office space, or the equivalent of one New York skyscraper) and across the country is also likely to portend a construction boom.

Kyat Could See Further Strength

Despite having the brightest outlook in nearly six decades, the Myanmar economy still faces major challenges before it can enter the pantheon of South East Asian miracle countries like Vietnam and Thailand. Standing in its way is a dilapidated exchange rate mechanism, where the black market rate of the Myanmar kyat to the US dollar is more than 120 times greater than the official government rate. As the official government rate of MMK6.4355/US$ is rarely (if ever) used to settle transactions, the black market rate, currently at MMK776.00/US$, is the effective exchange rate.

Although the government is working with the IMF in order to move towards a single-rate mechanism, it lacks the ability to control the currency in a meaningful way. In light of the suddenly reform-minded government, as well as historic communication with the US, we now see the possibility of continued strength in the kyat despite it having appreciated more than 20% over the past two years. As the economy opens up, foreign demand for the kyat will surge, underpinning the currency's already strong historical price.

Significant Upside Risks To Growth Forecast

Despite the growing chance of renewed recession in the US and EU, Myanmar's starting position as a nearly completely isolated economy means that it bears little exposure to the global economy's woes. As a result, risks to our growth forecast of 5.0% for 2012 are weighted heavily to the upside. Should either the US or EU ease sanctions considerably, we would consider revising our forecast upwards.

MYANMAR - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
	2011		2012		2013		2014		2015		2016
Nominal GDP, MMKbn ¹	45,024.2	f	51,648.3	f	59,247.1	f	67,963.8	f	77,963.0	f	89,433.3	f
Nominal GDP, US$bn ¹	55.5	f	60.9	f	67.1	f	74.0	f	81.6	f	90.0	f
Real GDP growth, % change y-o-y ¹	6.0	f	5.0	f	5.0	f	5.0	f	5.0	f	5.0	f
GDP per capita, US$ ¹	890	f	956	f	1,033	f	1,117	f	1,207	f	1,305	f
Population, mn ²	62.4	f	63.7	f	65.0	f	66.3	f	67.6	f	68.9	f
Notes: ^f BMI forecasts. Sources: ¹ Asian Development Bank. ² World Bank/UN/BMI.

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The Iraqi government's goal of reducing its budget deficit by two-thirds by the end of 2014

Iraq - Fiscal Policy - Nov 10 2011

BMI View: Iraqi Finance Minister Rafi al-Eisawi's plan to reduce the budget deficit by two-thirds, which relies on increasing oil exports and privatising state-owned enterprises, is feasible but will require a significant degree of political will in order to reform the business environment. Given our view that political instability will retard the pace of reforms, we maintain our budget deficit forecasts of 2.7% and 2.6% of GDP in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

The Iraqi government's goal of reducing its budget deficit by two-thirds by the end of 2014 is achievable, though will require a high degree of political will. On October 22, media sources quoted Finance Minister Rafi al-Eisawi as stating that the government planned to reduce the budget shortfall by increasing oil production and privatising state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Given the high degree of political instability in the country, we expect the business environment reforms necessary to attract foreign investment into SOEs will take a significant amount of time to enact (and therefore lead to but a few acquisitions, if any, over the medium term). Therefore, we maintain our budget deficit forecasts of 2.7% and 2.6% of GDP in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

Hydrocarbons Are The Easier Route

Fiscal revenues are set to increase dramatically over the coming years, mostly due to advances in hydrocarbon production that will allow for greater exports. Our Oil and Gas research team projects oil production to rise from an average of 2.8mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to 7.5mn b/d by 2016, with export volumes rising from 2.0mn b/d to 6.6mn b/d over the same period. Although we foresee declining international energy prices over the medium term, from an average OPEC basket price of US$102 per barrel (/bbl) in 2011 to US$99/bbl in 2012 and US$97/bbl in 2013, the effect of rapidly rising oil production, and in turn exports, will cause oil revenues to rise sharply (see accompanying chart).

Hydrocarbon Revenues To Pour In

Iraq - Forecasts For Value Of Petroleum Exports

Source: BMI

Privatisations Entail Greater Complexity

Privatisation is another potential source of revenues, according to Eisawi, but we see several obstacles to successful sales of SOEs. Reforming the economy from a state-centric system to a market-based one is a high priority for the government, and there is certainly a large pool of potential assets available for privatisation (with 177 state-owned firms in the country). Approximately 43% of all Iraqi state-owned firms (a total of 76 enterprises) fall under the authority and supervision of the Ministry of Industry and Minerals (MIM), with ownership of 250 factories. Sectors span the areas of agriculture, transportation, telecommunications, utilities, construction, hydrocarbons, and financial services, among others, and given the high rates of growth that the country is projected to see (see our online service, November 8, 'Double-Digit Growth Ahead'), many of these could be attractive targets for investors.

A Large Pool Of Potential Assets For Sale

Iraq - Breakdown Of Number Of SOEs By Ministry

Source: BMI, Iraq Task Force For Economic Reforms/UN/World Bank

That said, we note that there a number of obstacles to the privatisation plans, and a high degree of political will would be required to ensure that the business environment is attractive enough for investors to bid. The lack of a favourable environment has proven to be a decisive factor in previous failed attempts by the MIM to establish public-private partnerships (PPPs) between SOEs under its authority and investors, according to the US Special Inspector General For Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR).

A series of laws have yet to be updated in order to address potential legal issues of privatisation, and while an Economic Reform Law is currently being developed, changes also need to be made to the country's Companies Law and Investment Law. Furthermore, investors would need assurances that they would not receive any legal backlash from laying off workers (as many SOEs have excessively large payrolls). However, there are significant concerns regarding political stability in the country, which will slow down the pace of reforms and dampen investor interest (see our online service, October 19, 'Mounting Challenges To Stability').

Success Would Help On P&L

Should Baghdad succeed in spinning off even a few of its SOEs, we would expect to see substantial benefits. First, the government would see a large (albeit temporary) source of new revenue. Second, and more importantly, fiscal expenditures related to maintaining state-owned firms would decrease, boding well for the budget. Many SOEs have suffered heavy damage to their assets, rendering the firms inoperable and therefore unable to earn revenues, yet workers are kept on payrolls and paid from government coffers. Others are able to function but have a bloated workforce. These firms collectively employ over 633,000 workers, and employee compensation expenses took up 41.5% of total fiscal expenditures (US$22.8bn out of total expenses of US$55.0bn) in 2010. Thus, privatisations would have a major impact on both revenues and expenses.

IRAQ - FISCAL POLICY
	2008	2009	2010		2011		2012		2013		2014		2015		2016
Fiscal revenue, IQDbn ²	80,252.0	55,209.0	69,521.0	e	104,192.9	f	139,873.7	f	187,050.4	f	220,897.2	f	258,395.4	f	304,708.9	f
Revenue, % of GDP ²	51.6	43.8	45.0	e	51.2	f	56.8	f	62.5	f	64.7	f	66.7	f	68.8	f
Fiscal expenditure, IQDbn ²	59,403.0	52,567.0	64,351.0	e	104,425.2	f	146,436.1	f	194,760.0	f	228,577.7	f	261,439.3	f	291,748.0	f
Expenditure, % of GDP ²	38.2	41.7	41.7	e	51.3	f	59.5	f	65.1	f	66.9	f	67.4	f	65.9	f
Budget balance, IQDbn ²	20,849.0	2,642.0	5,170.0	e	-232.3	f	-6,562.4	f	-7,709.6	f	-7,680.5	f	-3,043.9	f	12,960.9	f
Budget balance, % of GDP ²	13.4	2.1	3.3	e	-0.1	f	-2.7	f	-2.6	f	-2.2	f	-0.8	f	2.9	f
Primary balance IQDbn ^1,2	21,757.0	3,343.4	5,988.3	e	3,745.7	f	-2,584.4	f	-2,912.6	f	-2,680.5	f	1,956.1	f	17,960.9	f
Primary balance % of GDP ^1,2	14.0	2.7	3.9	e	1.8	f	-1.0	f	-1.0	f	-0.8	f	0.5	f	4.1	f
Notes: ^e BMI estimates. ^f BMI forecasts. ¹ Fiscal balance stripping out interest payments on government debt; Sources: ² CBI/BMI.

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Posted by Mr Thx Tuesday, April 10, 2012 0 comments

Emergency evacuation of workers ordered after Reactor No. 3 emits grayish smoke

(NaturalNews) Here's the latest on the Fukushima nuclear power plant incident in Japan:

• Releases of radiation from the Fukushima nuclear power plant are "now significant and continuing" said Andre-Claude Lacoste, said the head of France's Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN). (http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest...)

• A "grayish smoke" cloud was observed coming from the roof of Reactor No. 3, causing an evacuation of all the workers there while Japanese authorities figure out if it's safe to return the workers to the site. It was called an "alarming setback" and provides further evidence of a worsening problem with Reactor No. 3 (where the MOX plutonium fuel is stored). (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/wor...)

• Radioactive contamination has now likely reached to a 100km radius around the Fukushima power plant.

• WHO admits that the radiation leaks from Fukushima are far worse than what the public has so far been told (http://www.speroforum.com/a/50605/W...).

• Power cables have so far been physically rigged to all six reactors, but only one or two coolant pumps are working so far.

• Abnormal levels of radiation continue to be found in Japanese food and milk products.

• The World Bank reports that Japan will need to spend $235 billion to rebuild after the Fukushima disaster. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...) Note: Japan currently owns over $800 billion in U.S. debt and may start selling off some of that debt to pay for its rebuilding efforts.

• Two of the six reactors are now considered placed in "cold shutdown," meaning they pose very little risk of further escalations. Reactor No. 3, on the other hand, still poses a threat of what experts are now calling "re-criticality." (A fuel rod meltdown.)

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Posted by Mr Thx Tuesday, March 22, 2011 0 comments

Introducing the Islamic Dinar & Dirham

Abu Bakr ibn Abi Maryam reported that he heard the Messenger of Allah, may Allah bless him and grant him peace, say: "A time is certainly coming over mankind in which there will be nothing [left] which will be of use save a dinar and a dirham."
(The Musnad of Imam Ahmad ibn Hanbal)
1. History of the Dinar & Dirham

2. What are the Islamic Dinar and Dirham

3. Using the Dinar and Dirham

4. The Importance of Paying Zakat with Dinar & Dirham
1. History of the Dinar & Dirham

In the beginning the Muslims used gold and silver by weight and the dinar and dirhams that they used were made by the Persians.

The first dated coins that can be assigned to the Muslims are copies of silver dirhams of the Sassanian Yezdigird III, struck during the Khalifate of Uthman, radiy'allahu anhu. These coins differ from the original ones in that an Arabic inscription is found in the obverse margins, normally reading "in the Name of Allah". Since then the writing in Arabic of the Name of Allah and parts of Qur'an on the coins became a custom in all mintings made by Muslims.

Under what was known as the coin standard of the Khalif Umar Ibn al-Khattab, the weight of 10 dirhams was equivalent to 7 dinars (mithqals).

In the year 75 (695 CE) the Khalifah Abdalmalik ordered Al-Hajjaj to mint the first dirhams, thus he established officially the standard of Umar Ibn al-Khattab. In the next year he ordered the dirhams to be minted in all the regions of the Dar al-Islam. He ordered that the coins be stamped with the sentence: "Allah is Unique, Allah is Eternal". He ordered the removal of human figures and animals from the coins and that they be replaced with letters.

This command was then carried on throughout all the history of Islam. The dinar and the dirham were both round, and the writing was stamped in concentric circles. Typically on one side it was written the "tahlil" and the "tahmid", that is, "la ilaha ill'Allah" and "alhamdulillah"; and on the other side was written the name of the Amir and the date. Later on it became common to introduce the blessings on the Prophet, salla'llahu alayhi wa sallam, and sometimes, ayats of the Qur'an.

Gold and silver coins remained official currency until the fall of the Khalifate. Since then, dozens of different paper currencies were made in each of the new postcolonial national states created from the dismemberment of Dar al-Islam.

Allah says in the Qur'an:

And amongst the People of the Book there are those who, if you were to entrust them with a treasure (qintar), he would return it to you. And amongst them is he who, if you were to entrust him with a dinar would not return it to you, unless you kept standing over him. Qur'an (3,75)
Qadi Abu Bakr Ibn al-Arabi, the greatest authority on Qur'anic Law wrote in his famous "Ahkam al-Qur'an" about this ayat:

"The benefit that can be taken from this is the prohibition of entrusting the People of the Book with goods".

Qadi Abu Bakr said: "The question concerning entrusting property is legislated by the text of Qur'an." This means that the ayat is a legal judgement of absolute validity and of the greatest importance to the deen.

Entrusting wealth to non-Muslims is not allowed, but furthermore, taking a non-Muslim as a partner outside Dar al-Islam (where we stand over them) is extremely restricted, because they might cheat or might use our wealth in forbidden transactions.

Since paper-money is a promise of payment, can it be permitted to trust the issuers while they hold the payment (our property) outside our jurisdiction? History has also demonstrated repeatedly that paper money has been a permanent instrument of default and cheating the Muslims. In addition, Islamic Law does not permit the use of a promise of payment as a medium of exchange.
2. What are the Dinar & Dirham

The Islamic Dinar is a specific weight
of 22k gold equivalent to 4.25 grams. The Islamic Dirham is a specific weight
of pure silver equivalent to 2.975 grams.

According to Islamic Law...

The Islamic Dinar is a specific weight of 22k gold (917.) equivalent to 4.25 grams.

The Islamic Dirham is a specific weight of pure silver equivalent to 3.0 grams.

Umar Ibn al-Khattab established the known standard relationship between them based on their weights: "7 dinars must be equivalent to 10 dirhams."

"The Revelation undertook to mention them and attached many judgements to them, for example zakat, marriage, and hudud, etc., therefore within the Revelation they have to have a reality and specific measure for assessment [of zakat, etc.] upon which its judgements may be based rather than on the non-shari'i [other coins].

Know that there is consensus [ijma] since the beginning of Islam and the age of the Companions and the Followers that the dirham of the shari'ah is that of which ten weigh seven mithqals [weight of the dinar] of gold. . . The weight of a mithqal of gold is seventy-two grains of barley, so that the dirham which is seven-tenths of it is fifty and two-fifths grains. All these measurements are firmly established by consensus." Ibn Khaldun, Al-Muqaddimah
How are the Islamic dinar used?

1.- The Islamic Dinar can be used to save because they are wealth in themselves.

2.- They are used to pay zakat and dowry as they are requisite within Islamic Law.

3.- They are used to buy and sell since they are a legitimate medium of exchange.
3. Using the Dinar & Dirham

Gold and silver are the most stable currency the world has ever seen.

From the beginning of Islam until today, the value of the Islamic bimetallic currency has remained surprisingly stable in relation to basic consumable goods:

A chicken at the time of the Prophet, salla'llahu alaihi wa sallam, cost one dirham; today, 1,400 years later, a chicken costs approximately one dirham.

In 1,400 years inflation is zero.

Could we say the same about the dollar or any other paper currency in the last 25 years?

In the long term the bimetallic currency has proved to be the most stable currency the world has ever seen. It has survived, despite all the attempts by governments to transform it into a symbolic currency by imposing a nominal value different from its weight.

Reliability

Gold cannot be inflated by printing more of it; it cannot be devalued by government decree, and unlike paper currency it is an asset which does not depend upon anybody's promise to pay.

Portability and anonymity of gold are both important, but the most significant fact is that gold is an asset that is no-one else´s liability.

All forms of paper assets: bonds, shares, and even bank deposits, are promises to repay money borrowed. Their value is dependent upon the investor's belief that the promise will be fulfilled. As junk bonds and the Mexican peso have illustrated, a questionable promise soon loses value.

Gold is not like this. A piece of gold is independent of the financial system, and its worth is underwritten by 5,000 years of human experience.
4. The Importance of Paying Zakat with Dinar & Dirham

"Islam is based on five: testifying that there is no god but Allah and that Muhammad is the Messenger of Allah, establishing the prayer, paying the Zakat, the Hajj and the fast of Ramadan."

Zakat cannot be paid with a promise of payment

Zakat can only be paid with tangible merchandise, called in Arabic 'ain. It cannot be paid with a promise to pay or a debt, called in Arabic dayn.

From the beginning the zakat was paid with dinars and dirhams. Most significant is that the payment of zakat was never allowed in paper money during all the ottoman period right until the fall of the Khalifate.

Shaykh Muhammad Alish (1802-1881), the great Maliki Qadi, said that if you were to pay zakat with paper-money only its value as merchandise ('ayn), that is, its value as paper can be accepted. Therefore, its nominal value is irrelevant as payment of zakat.

"If the Zakat was obligatory by considering its substance as a merchandise, then the nisab would not be stipulated according to its value but according to its substance and its quantity, as is the case with silver, gold, grain or fruits. Since its substance [paper] is irrelevant [in value] in respect to the Zakat, then it should be treated as the copper, iron or other similar substances."

Fatwa of Shaykh Alish

Payment of Zakat is perfectly explained and regulated in the Islamic jurisprudence. For centuries when Islamic Law was enforced by a Caliph or an Amir, the Zakat was collected in gold and silver. When paper-money was being first introduced, during the last century by the colonial powers the traditional ulema rejected it as being opposed to Islamic Law. According to them paper money was to be treated as fulus or lower category of currency with limited used, basically just as small change. It is, for example, not allowed to make a qirad with fulus. Among those ulema, stands out the famous scholar of magrebi ascendance, Shaykh Muhammad Alish (1802-1881) who was the Shaykh of the Shaykhs of Maliki fiqh in the University of Al-Azhar in Egypt. He wrote in his Fatwa.

"What is your judgement in respect to the paper with the stamp of the Sultan that circulates like the dinars and the dirhams? Is it obligatory to pay Zakat as if it was a coin of gold or silver, or merchandise, or not?"

I responded exactly in the following way:

"Praise belongs to Allah and blessing and peace upon our Master Muhammad, the Messenger of Allah."

"Zakat is not to be paid for it, because Zakat is restricted to the flocks, certain type of grains and fruits, gold and silver, the value of rotational merchandise and the price of the goods withheld. What is referred previously does not belong to any of these categories."

You will find an explanation by comparison with the copper coin or fulus with the stamp of the Sultan which is in circulation and for which no Zakat is paid since it does not belong to any of the categories mentioned. It says in the "Mudawwana": "Those who posses fulus for over a year for a value of 200 dirhams does not need to pay Zakat unless is used as a rotational merchandise. Then, it should be treated as if it was a merchandise."

In the "At-Tiraz", after mentioning that Abu Hanifa and Ash-Shafi'i obliged to pay Zakat for the fulus, [is stated that] since both affirm that the payment of Zakat is from value, and considering that Shafi'i has two contradictory opinions about the subject, the opinion of the school is that there is no obligation to pay Zakat for the fulus since there is no discrepancies about the fact that what counts with respect to the fulus is not its weight or its quantity but only its given value. If the Zakat was obligatory by considering its substance as a merchandise, then the nisab would not be stipulated according to its value but according to its substance and its quantity, as is the case with silver, gold, grain or fruits. Since its substance [paper] is irrelevant [in value] in respect to the Zakat, then it should be treated as the copper, iron or other similar substances.

And Allah, ta'ala, is the Wisest. And may Allah bless and give peace to our Master Muhammad and his family.

(Translated from the "Al-Fath Al-'Ali Al-Maliki" pp. 164-165).

This Fatwa considers paper-money to be fulus, because it only represents money and does not have value as merchandise. It follows that since Zakat cannot be paid in fulus, which has no value as merchandise, it cannot be paid in paper-money, which value as weight of paper is null. On this basis, it becomes clear the urgent need to restore the use of the Dinar and the Dirham as payment of Zakat. If the millions of Muslims who now make their payment of Zakat in paper money would do it in newly minted Dinars and Dirhams, they will put in circulation millions of gold and silver coins into the mainstream of daily commercial activities of our communities. That single act will became the most important political act of the century, opening the path towards the establishment our own halal free currency breaking away from the usurious financial system.

The return to the payment of zakat in gold and silver is an essential part of the reestablishment of Islam.

source HERE

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Posted by Mr Thx Wednesday, August 25, 2010 0 comments

Statement On the Shariah Currency and Legal Tender

17.08.2010 - By Imam Hajj Abdalhasib Castineira
"Statement On the Shariah Currency and Legal Tender"

Statement from Imam Hajj Abdalhasib Castineira, Shariah Counselor of World Islamic Mint and Former Imam of the Great Mosque of Granada Kuala Lumpur.

Bismillah irrahman irrahim
Regarding the matter of the Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham and Legal Tender in Malaysia

The Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham known as Shariah currency or Shariah coins in the Fiqh are not legal tender. The Shariah currency has no relation to present fiat currencies on many accounts and should not be legally or practically be compared or treated as the same. The Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham relates to religious matters, most important of which is the matter of payment of Zakat, rather than constitutional matters. Its introduction can only occurred on voluntary basis since freedom is a command from Allah in all commercial transactions including the acceptance of money. Its usage has been throughout history open to Muslim and non-Muslims alike.

All Praise is due to Allah, the most Compassionate, the most Merciful, the Lord of all the worlds, the King of the Day of Judgment, Who has gathered all knowledge in His Essence and Who is the Creator of all knowledge for eternity. All peace and blessings be upon His beloved Prophet, Muhammad, who was not taught by man but by Him, He was the last and most honored Prophet, the last in the chain of prophethood that was brought to this world and has guided us to the right path. May abundant peace and blessing be upon his Family and his Companions, who were chosen among the good and benevolent.

In relation to the present concern of the people regarding the Launching of the Shariah currency in the State of Kelantan on the last 2nd of Ramadhan 1431, as a witness of the momentous ceremony of the Launching in the city of Kota Bharu and as Shariah Counselor of World Islamic Mint, I would like to state in a manner of clarification and support to this initiative the following:

1.- The Gold Dinar and Silver Dirham are not legal tender. Legal tender or forced tender is an offered payment that, by law, cannot be refused in settlement of a debt, and have the debt remain in force. Personal cheques, credit cards, debit cards and similar non-cash methods of payment are not legal tender only the notes and coins of Malaysia are Legal Tender. The issuing of Legal Tender is the exclusive prerogative of the Federal Government and the Government of Kelantan never had nor has the intention to issue Legal Tender as that is legally impossible.

2.- The Dinar and the Dirham are known in the fiqh (see [a] Muqaddimah of ibn Khaldun) as the “Shariah currency”or “Shariah coins”. The term “Shariah coins” is specific to the Dinar and Dirham and is not applicable to any other coin made in gold, silver or any other material. Any other coin is known as “non-shari’i” (ibn Khaldun).

3.-Properly speaking the term “alternative currency” is not applicable to the Shariah coins or currency because the term “Shariah coins” is specific to the Dinar and Dirham and therefore is not alternative to any other coins or currency (non shari’i). It stands on its own without alternative. The use of the expression “alternative currency” can only be used if proper explanation is given in regards to the fundamental differences that exist in relation to the legal tender currencies such as the Malaysian Ringgit. The Malaysian Ringgit is an entirely different legal concept and has different functions. The Malaysian Ringgit is not based on a commodity (in Arabic ‘ayn, meaning tangible merchandise) like the Dinar and Dirham, the Malaysian Ringgit a promissory note (in Arabic dayn, meaning debt or liability) with no intrinsic value (its value as ‘ayn/tangible merchandise is the value of the paper close to zero) but with a fiat value which established by the compulsion law of the Federal Government through the Law of Legal Tender and it can change from time to time. On the other hand, the value of the Dinar and Dirham depends entirely on the market value of the commodity (gold and silver) on which it is manufactured, just like a kilo of rice depends on the value of rice. This difference in important in religious terms, for example, zakat which is a legal obligation of the Shariah has to be paid in ‘ayn but cannot be paid in dayn. (see [b] Al-Kasani). Muslims should, if having the choice(if no choice is given or no ‘ayn is available then darurah, that is exceptionality, is temporarily applicable), pay with ‘ayn rather than dayn.

5.- In linguistic sense, the Dinar and Dirham are not face values, but names that indicate specific weights. The Dinar is a specific weight of 4.25 grams and it is also known as mithqal in Arabic. The Dirham is a specific weight of 2.975 grams or 7/10 of the mithqal. In a way they are legally the same as saying “1kg of rice”. Therefore they are specific weights of commodity (gold and silver) which are mentioned in Qur’an and in many aspects of the Shariah regarding zakat and legal judgments; and thus they cannot be altered in their weight.

6.- In history, the Shariah coins has never been legal tender. In the practice of the early Muslim community the Shariah coins were not only currency used as means of payment. Barley, dates or salt were also used as means of payment and therefore no exclusive right was given to the Shariah coins. The reason for this “freedom to choose the medium of exchange” is that money is considered a part of trading it is regulated under the same Qur’anic injunction that regulates trade: “tijaratun ‘aan taradim minkum”, the meaning of which is “trade according to mutual consent”. “Mutual consent” excludes the idea of compulsion or monopoly in regards to trading. (see [c] Tafsir al-Jalalayn). This is another reason why the Dinar and Dirham are not legal tender and have never been legal tender. Freedom to choose the medium of exchange is a fundamental right granted by Allah to Muslims and non-Muslims alike. The use of the Shariah currency is therefore inclusive of non-Muslims.

7.-The term “currency” is commonly understood as legal tender or as fiat money that carries a face value. Since the “Shariah coins” are not legal tender and do not have a face value the” Shariah coins” should be better understood as a commodity rather than as “currency” in the common use of the term. Regarding current common practices, the use of the “Shariah coins” belongs to the category of barter, that is, the mutual exchange of products and services. It is arguable that in the past, before the introduction of legal tender laws, transactions made with gold and silver were consider normal transactions and the term barter was applicable to all other transactions. Therefore the use of the term “Shariah currency” should be understood with the limitations explained above and in consideration to the historical practice of the Muslims as it is relevant in the Islamic Jurisprudence.

8.- Until very recently in history “paper currencies” were defined as promissory notes in terms of gold and silver. In that sense they represented an ‘amanah’ (trusting wealth to someone who will keep it for you until you demand it) that is an obligation to pay on demand a certain amount of gold and silver. We know from history that this obligation was often not fulfilled and eventually the governments of the world decided gradually to eliminate the obligation to pay in specie altogether. The closest case of the default is the US dollar and its unilateral decision to break their “Bretton Woods Agreement”. This concept of ‘broken amanah’ is known in the Qur’an and carries legal implications as to the prohibition to accept amanah from non-Muslims unless they live under Muslim rule so that they can be obliged to pay their contractual obligations (see [d] Qadi Abu Bakr ibn al-Arabi).

This legal injunction, which in theory implies the prohibition to accept British pounds, US dollars, etc. ( or any other currency backed by them), has been abrogated long ago since the colonial days by new laws that consider that this legal injunction is no longer applicable. Under the inspiration of the colonial legal systems, the constitutional Law of all Muslim countries including Malaysia grants the right to accept foreign promissory notes from non-Muslim countries (such as USD) to their own Central Bank (Bank Negara) as a reserve value for their own fiat currency. Because of this many Muslims (and non-Muslims) still mistakenly belief that their own fiat currency is backed by gold and silver when in fact no legal tender in the world is fully backed by specie anymore. The gold dinar and silver dirham are commodities and therefore they are not an ‘amanah: they are a tangible commodity (‘ayn), that is, when you pay with them, you hand over a certain amount of gold and silver and therefore they do not require to be backed by any other asset or authority other than itself. This is another reason why the Shariah currency cannot be compared or considered an alternative to “paper currencies”.

9.- Legal Tender is often a misunderstood concept. Coins and banknotes do not need to be ‘legal tender’ in order to be used as money to buy and perform other transactions for which money is intended. Legal tender must be accepted to settle a money debt. For example, US federal law does not restrict private businesses, persons or organisations in what methods of payment they choose to accept or refuse. Businesses are therefore free to insist on payment by credit card, for example, or to refuse larger denomination banknotes. In Canada for example, only Canadian dollar banknotes issued by the Bank of Canada are legal tender; however, commercial transactions may legally be settled in any manner agreed by the parties involved. A significant amount of business in Canada is transacted in United States dollars, despite United States currency not being legal tender. Legal tender can be refused unless or until a person is in debt, therefore vending machines and transport staff do not have to accept the largest denomination of banknote for a single bus fare or bar of chocolate, and even shopkeepers can reject large banknotes. However, restaurants that do not collect money until after a meal is served (a debt has been created) would have to accept any legal tender. The right of a trader to refuse to do business with any person means a purchaser cannot demand to make a purchase, and so declaring a legal tender other than for debts would be redundant.

10.- The minting of the Dinar and Dirham is a known practice of the Muslims from the early days of Islam. The first dated coins that can be assigned to the Muslims are copies of silver dirhams of the Sasanian Yezdigird III, struck during the Khalifate of Uthman, radiallahu anhu. These coins differ from the original ones in that an Arabic inscription is found in the obverse margins, normally reading “in the name of Allah”. Since then the writing in Arabic of the name of Allah and parts of Qur’an on the coins became a custom in all minting made by Muslims. In the year 75 (695) the Khalif Abdalmalik ordered Al-Haddjadj to mint the first dirhams, officially establishing the standard of Umar ibn al-Khattab, radiallahu anhu: 7/10 of the mithqal. The next year he ordered the dirhams to be minted in all the regions of the Dar al-Islam. He ordered the coins to be stamped with the sentence: “Allahu Ahad, Allahu Samad”. The minting of the coins is considered an obligation of the Sultan that needs to be followed (see [e] al-Qurtubi).

And Victory belongs to Allah. In Him we trust and praise belong to the Lord of the worlds and peace and blessings on His Messenger.

The slave of Allah, Hajj Abdalhasib Castineira, in Kuala Lumpur, on the 5th of Ramadhan, 1431.

NOTES
A] Imam Abu Zayd Ibn Khaldun (d. 1406)
“The Revelation undertook to mention them and attached many judgments to them, for example zakat, marriage, and hudud. Therefore within the Revelation they have to have a reality and specific measure for assessment (of zakat, etc.) upon which its judgments may be based rather than on the non-shari’i (other coins).

Know that there is a consensus (ijma) since the beginning of Islam and the age of the Companions and the Followers that the dirham of the shari’ah is that of which ten weigh seven mithqals (weight of the dinar) of gold… The weight of a mithqal is seventy-two grains of barley, so that the dirham which is seven tenths of it is fifty and two fifths grains. All these measurements are firmly established by consensus.”
“Al-Muqaddimah”

B] Imam Abu Bakr al-Kasani ( d.1191)
“If the property on which zakat fell due is dayn, as distinguished from ‘ayn, its zakat may be settled in terms of ‘ayn wealth. Thus a person having a claim of two hundred dirhams on which zakat is due, may give, in settlement of the same, five dirhams in cash, because dayn as compared with ‘ayn is defective (naqis) and the ‘ayn is complete (kamil), and a settlement of the defective in terms of the complete is valid. On the contrary, the settlement of the complete ‘ayn in terms of the defective (dayn) is not valid, and therefore, the zakat debt is not discharged if a person wants to pay the zakat of two hundred dirhams which he possesses (i.e. ‘ayn) in terms of the five dirhams which a poor person owes him (i.e. dayn); namely, by absolving him from the debt intending it for his own zakat debt on the two hundred dirhams.”
“Bada’i` al-Sana’i”

C] Shaykh Jalaluddin al-Mahalli & Shaykh Jalaluddin al-Suyuti
Allah says in the Qur’an (4, 29):

{ يَٰأَيُّهَا ٱلَّذِينَ آمَنُواْ لاَ تَأْكُلُوۤاْ أَمْوَٰلَكُمْ بَيْنَكُمْ بِٱلْبَٰطِلِ إِلاَّ أَن تَكُونَ تِجَٰرَةً عَن تَرَاضٍ مِّنْكُمْ وَلاَ تَقْتُلُوۤاْ أَنْفُسَكُمْ إِنَّ ٱللَّهَ كَانَ بِكُمْ رَحِيماً }

Tafsir:
“O you who believe, consume not your goods between you wrongly, unlawfully according to the Law, through usury or usurpation, except it be trading (tijāratan, also read tijāratun), so that the goods be from trade effected, through mutual agreement, through mutual good-will: such [goods] you may consume. And kill not yourselves, by committing what leads towards destruction on account of some affiliation, be it in this world or the Hereafter. Surely God is ever Merciful to you, when He forbids you such things.”
“Tafsir al-Jalalayn”

D] Qadi Abu Bakr Ibn al Arabi (d. 1148)
Allah says in the Qur’an (3:75):
“And amongst the People of the Book there are those who, if you were to entrust them with a treasure (qintar), he would return it to you. And amongst them is he who, if you were to entrust him with a dinar would not return it to you, unless you kept standing over him. “

Tafsir:
“the benefit that can be taken from this is the prohibition of entrusting (amanah) the People of the Book with goods. The question concerning entrusting property is legislated by the text of Qur’an.”
“Ahkam al-Qur’an”

E] Imam Abu Abdallah Al-Qurtubi (d. 1273)
Allah says in the Qur’an (4:59):
“O you who believe! Obey Allah and obey the Messenger and those in command among you..”

Tafsir:
“The ayat is an order to obey the Sultan in respect to seven obligations: the minting of the dinar and the dirham, fixing weights and measure, legal judgments, Hajj, Jumu’ah, the two Eids and Jihad.”
“Al-Jami’ li-Ahkam al-Qur’an”

source HERE