ThxPORTAL - My OnlinE InvestmenT ProgresS

As we enter a new month (and a new quarter) David Rosenberg points out the mounting risks to equities as investors begin to price in very optimistic outcomes after a 70% rally in stocks. Attached are his 7 near-term risks to the market: 1) Last week’s bond auctions did not go well. It seems that Japan and China did not show much interest. The lack of bids was no better underscored than in the 7-year Treasury note auction where the median yield was 3.29% versus 3.05% a month earlier. April is a cruel month for the U.S. Treasury...

When it comes to equity analysts Teun Draaisma is a must-read. The European equity analyst famously called for investors to sell stocks in June 2007 when the markets were flashing a “full house sell” signal. He then flipped bullish in November of 2008 as the markets were pricing in a much more severe situation than Draaisma saw unfolding. He’s one of the few investors who actually got the downturn and the upturn correct and was able to connect the dots between cause and effect. In his latest strategy note Draaisma is saying...

Saya terpanggil untuk membuat artikel ini setelah mendapat idea daripada artikel Tom Dyson : How to build extraordinary wealth in the coming market chaos. Beliau mencadangkan strategi yang menarik yang mungkin kita dapat ambil iktibar. Strategi tersebut ialahDyson: Well, I still recommend keeping a large portion of your investment funds – say 70% or so – in the very safest things, like cash and the cash-like investments I mentioned earlier....

The Daily Crux: OK Tom, the last time we talked you recommended buying only the absolute safest companies because most stocks were too expensive. Well, they've become even more expensive now… But we just heard you're recommending blue-chip stocks to your readers. Have you changed your mind? Are you bullish on stocks now? Tom Dyson: Well, I can see why you'd think that, but the short answer is no – I haven't changed my mind. I'm still quite bearish on stocks...

Is war just around the corner? While in theory it would make perfect sense to distract Americans from the long road to US insolvency, and other more pressing issues such as the endless criminality all around us, in practice we have so far heard merely rumors.The Herald of Scotland, however, may have credible proof that a US-led attack on Iran approaches and could be just days away. The newspaper has procured proof of an arms shipment to Diego Garcia, which consists of "of 195 smart, guided, Blu-110 bombs and 192 massive 2000lb...

How can you track the risk of significantly higher inflation?Simple. Just follow the government long-bond market. If the market gets a whiff of double-digit, or even high single-digit, annual inflation, the U.S. bond market will collapse.There's an ETF that makes it easy to follow the U.S. long bond market – TLT.Here's the chart:What you can see is that the government long-bond market peaked at the height of the banking crisis, just after...

Malaysia’s central bank said it may increase interest rates further to avert asset bubbles and discourage risky investments by people seeking better returns, even as inflation will likely remain “modest” this year.“We will review the conditions at our next monetary policy meeting and work towards further normalizing if necessary,” Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz said in a March 12 Bloomberg Television interview in Kuala Lumpur. “Inflation will continue to be modest and therefore it would not prompt us towards tightening, but that...

PETALING JAYA: The local bourse’s benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index, which has risen 2.9% from March 4 when Bank Negara announced a 25-basis point hike in the overnight policy rate to close yesterday at 1,321.43 points, will start to retrace from April as the region’s central banks begin to normalise their respective monetary policies. Analysts believe that with the lack of fundamentals to fuel the rally further, the market would start to see outflow of funds as soon as central banks in the region start to raise...

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – The Kansas City school board narrowly approved a plan Wednesday night to close nearly half the district's schools in a desperate bid to avoid a potential bankruptcy. The board voted 5-4 after parents and community leaders made final pleas to spare the schools even as the beleaguered district seeks to erase a projected $50 million budget shortfall. The approved plan calls for shuttering 29 of 61 schools — a striking amount even as public school closures rise nationwide while...

KUALA LUMPUR: Banks have begun raising their base lending rates (BLRs) following Bank Negara’s move to lift the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points last week. Five of the largest banks in the country raised their BLR to 5.8%. Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) and CIMB Bank Bhd were the first two banks to announce their interest rate hike from 5.55%. The two banks raised their BLR and base financing rates to 5.8% effective today following Bank Negara’s OPR revision last Thursday. In a statement, Maybank president and CEO...

Most professional traders asked themselves the same question during last week's stock rally:How is the market rising when I'm not buying stocks – and neither are any of my friends?I have a chart for you showing why many of the smartest traders I know are asking themselves this question... and why they expect the market to head lower, at least in the short term.Below is a chart that displays how some professional traders view the market....