"The crash is over", says an economist. "Housing can only go up," says another. "I think the market has bottomed out," says one builder. "It appears we have turned the proverbial corner," says a second.


After hitting a low with stocks in March 2009, U.S. single family building permits rallied in three waves into March 2012. The latest high is more than 65% below the September 2005 peak. A MarketWatch commentary insists, "Permits Push Signals U.S. Housing Boom." These assessments are flooding in even though many home buyers from 2010 and 2011 are already underwater! According to CoreLogic, more than one millions U.S. home buyers who have taken out low-money-down FHA mortgages over the last two years already owe more on their loan than their homes are worth. The FHA's policy of accepting almost no money down is deadly when..... continues in the May issue of EWI's Financial Forecast 10 page report available for FREE.
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  • Sentiment analysis.
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  • NYSE margin debt signal.
  • Facebook special.
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Posted by Mr Thx Monday, May 28, 2012 0 comments

Spain is a catastrophe on such a level that few analysts even grasp it.
Indeed, to fully understand just why Spain is such a catastrophe, we need to understand Spain in the context of both the EU and the global financial system.


The headline economic data points for Spain are the following:
  • Spain’s economy (roughly €1 trillion) is the fourth largest in Europe and the 12th largest in the world.
  • Spain sports an official Debt to GDP of 68% and a Federal Deficit between 5.3-5.8% (as we’ll soon find out the official number)
  • Spain’s unemployment is currently 24%: the highest in the industrialized world.
  • Unemployment for Spanish youth is 50%+: on par with that of Greece
On the surface, Spain’s debt load and deficits aren’t too bad. So we have to ask ourselves, “Why is unemployment so high and why are Spanish ten year bills approaching the dreaded 7%?” (the level at which Greece and Portugal began requesting bailouts).
The answer to these questions lies within the dirty details of Spain’s economic “boom” of the 2000s as well as its banking system.
For starters, the Spanish economic boom was a housing bubble fueled by Spain lowering its interest rates in order to enter the EU, not organic economic growth.
Moreover, Spain’s wasn’t just any old housing bubble; it was a mountain of a property bubble (blue line below) that made the US’s (gray line below) look like a small hill in comparison.

continue here

Posted by Mr Thx Tuesday, May 1, 2012 0 comments
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