Devolution of the USD 2012? As the first public article for me just before 2010, it seems appropriate for me to comment on one of the biggest stories we will be all facing - that is an end game of events leading to the end of the USD. The implications for the world are no less than Armageddon - like. I mean it. Before we get into some details, I have been working on forecasts for 2010, and my study of the USD situation and how much time it has left. I first came to the conclusion that it was roughly (and I am getting close here on timing, I'm sure of this) two years from 2010. Actually, the calculation is two more years of relative USD functionality before the world realizes in about a shocking week's time that the USD is just about to really go belly up. It's not 5 years out anymore in my calculations, we have roughly two more years left. Wait, that coincides with 2012! It then occurred to me, as an afterthought, wait a minute - that takes us right to 2012! That has some real significance for many reasons. It was an accident my analysis led to that date, I did not ask 'Will the USD collapse in 2012?' and then do the analysis, it was the other way around. I did the analysis first and then was impressed that the date actually came to that fateful date all the prophecies are going crazy about - 2012. I find this coincidence remarkable. I think we all are aware of many economic and political disasters that will unfold if the USD were to actually collapse. The US economy would stop dead for a period of time. And, the rest of the world, hitherto dependent on the old industrial/consumer economic model will have to find a new economic paradigm to plan their economies… Let me interpret that last paragraph for you - The USD collapse means the entire structure of the world economy will collapse for a period of time, with a collapsed supply chain, among other things. The world will also go through cataclysms politically during that period. That usually leads to massive wars… starvation and mass homelessness - around the world. If it fits, then it fits Gee, that sounds familiar, wait, it's the same stuff being prophesied in many of the numerous2012 prophecies of various major religions! Hmmmm, that is quite the coincidence. The demise of the USD will collapse the entire world economy and lead to collapsed polities, and then a massive world war. Yep, it fits like a glove. And try this on for size- I do not believe in coincidence. Interesting. Of course, some people cringe at an analyst such as myself talking about 'religious bunkum prophecies' or so it goes. But consider that this analyst is a mathematician and also a former Oracle database systems engineer. I'm not exactly some dreamer. I certainly know the analytical methods… So, why is Chris saying this stuff then? How can you combine prophecies with analytical methods? Well, for one thing, I have a thinking paradigm where 'if it works, it must be true, don't leave out weird things in analysis, insisting only on some calculation based prediction'. That's what for example chartists do. Everything must be analytical to lots of people, and that is totally wrong often! (How do you think I have been able to make major predictions months ahead of others???) The trouble with being analytical all the time is that there are times, and this is proven, where chaos enters the picture and everything changes. Chaos is not predictable, by definition. But let's not digress too much. I have various metrics I'm using to come to this 'USD has 2 years left' proposition. By the way, I am not saying definitively, yet, that the USD only has 2 years left. This is a proposition we are discussing here, not yet a certainty. What would happen in a USD collapse? And so on. How will Asia fare? Horribly. Look, if you based your entire economic plan on Western consumerism, and that goes away, so does your plan. It's dead. If Western consumerism goes away, then the entire foundation of the Asia macro economy instantly crashes and stops cold. Do you remember what happened that fateful last quarter of 2008, after the Lehman debacle, and the world banking system almost collapsed en masse? Exports from China and Japan for example collapsed over 30%! Don't think economic demand cannot stop on a dime, because we already had one very scary case of this last year. So, all the pundits aside, Asia gets killed too economically. The big question is, can they successfully adapt to a new economic paradigm before they have their own revolutions? I do not think so. source HERE
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